Luis Abinader favored to secure re-election as President

On May 19, the Dominican Republic will hold general elections to elect the next president and vice president for the 2024-2028 term. Current president Luis Abinader, of the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), is among the nine presidential candidates and enjoys over 60% support in polls, suggesting he could be reelected in the first round.

Abinader’s strong chances of reelection stem from public support for his platform, which promised a departure from traditional Dominican politics. His victory in 2020 ended 16 years of uninterrupted rule by the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD), positioning him as an advocate for transparency and anti-corruption measures.

In addition to the presidential race, all 32 Senate seats and 190 Chamber of Deputies seats will be up for renewal. The ruling party aims to strengthen its majorities in both chambers to facilitate the implementation of Abinader’s reforms without the need for coalition negotiations.

Enduring popularity – the key to Luis Abinader’s reelection?
The current president leads with over 60% in the latest polls, maintaining consistent support since November 2023. If these polling trends persist on Election Day, he could secure a second term without the need for a runoff, winning by a significant margin over his main competitors. In contrast, candidates Leonel Fernandez and Abel Martinez lag far behind, with 20% and 11% of voting intentions, respectively.

Legislative Elections

Although Abinader is the clear favorite for these elections, he will need to secure more than 50% of the votes to win in the first round. If the electoral polls accurately reflect the final results (which assign 63% of voting intentions to the current president), Abinader could become the most voted president in the country’s history, surpassing Danilo Medina’s 61% in 2016.

The ruling party aims to bolster its majorities in both chambers, allowing Abinader to push through essential reforms without the need for negotiations with other factions.

The election outcome will be pivotal for the ruling party. While Abinader’s popularity remains high regionally, the results will significantly impact his leadership, particularly in addressing key issues like education, health, migration, and the humanitarian crisis in Haiti.

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