Flávio Bolsonaro Wins the First Round and Becomes the Largest Minority in Congress
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the first-round results of Brazil’s presidential election after coming out ahead in the general election held last Sunday. The Liberal Party (PL) candidate won 47.03% of valid votes, against 45.16% for President Lula da Silva, of the governing Workers’ Party (PT).
The gap of more than 2.2 million votes (1.87 percentage points) gives the PL candidate an early advantage heading into the runoff scheduled for October 25. The race reflected a highly polarized political landscape: the two candidates together took over 92% of valid votes, sidelining third-party contenders. If current trends hold, the new government will take office in 2027, while the newly elected Congress will begin its term in February.
A Polarized Runoff and an Uphill Battle for the Incumbent
The outgoing president’s performance revealed difficulties in holding on to the support of his previous coalition. With 53.9 million votes, Lula posted his weakest first-round presidential result since 1998. Although he is seeking to win over voters who backed moderate options such as Augusto Cury, history is not on his side: since Brazil’s return to democracy, no candidate who finished second in the first round has managed to overturn the result in the runoff.
The governing coalition is also up against a regional trend toward political alternation and the consolidation of right-wing coalitions across Latin America. Added to this is the cumulative wear and tear of more than two decades of lulismo as a dominant force in Brazilian public life.
Security, the Economy, and a Conservative Agenda
Flávio Bolsonaro’s message centered on public security, fiscal discipline, and shrinking the state. Throughout the campaign, he capitalized on public concern over organized crime with “tough-on-crime” proposals inspired by international figures such as Nayib Bukele, Javier Milei, and Donald Trump.
His key proposals include the “Tesouraço” plan to cut spending and eliminate at least 10 ministries, designating criminal factions as narco-terrorist organizations, lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16, and making working hours more flexible through individual agreements.
By contrast, the government’s agenda proposes a model of fiscal balance combined with social investment, a stronger minimum wage, a reduction of the workweek to 40 hours (ending the 6×1 schedule), and tackling organized crime through intelligence and financial investigation. Although economic indicators under Lula show GDP growth of around 2%, unemployment at 5.4%, and inflation at 4.22%, household debt and declining purchasing power continued to weigh on voter sentiment.
Congress: The Main Challenge to Governability
Beyond the presidential race, the reshaping of the legislature emerged as one of the defining outcomes of election day. The Liberal Party (PL) became the largest minority in both chambers, winning 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (its largest caucus since 1990) and 28 seats in the Senate. Among the most-voted deputies nationwide were figures from its ranks such as Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato.
Congress will nonetheless remain fragmented. No political force will hold a majority on its own (257 deputies and 41 senators), so governability will depend on the ability to build agreements with the center and center-right blocs grouped under the Centrão —such as União Brasil, PP, PSD, MDB, and Republicanos— which together hold more than 200 seats in the lower house.
International Outlook and Regional Positioning
On foreign policy, Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform prioritizes rebuilding alliances with the United States, Israel, and Argentina, pursuing OECD membership and joining the “Shield of the Americas.” The governing coalition’s platform, for its part, champions multilateralism, a stronger MERCOSUR, the BRICS, and cooperation with the Global South.
Economic actors and markets will be watching closely to see whether the next administration can manage the tensions of a deeply divided political landscape and build lasting legislative consensus.