Elections in Colombia: A Three-Bloc Scenario with Cepeda Leading
On May 31, Colombia will elect its president and vice president for the 2026–2030 term. With no possibility of re-election for the incumbent president, Gustavo Petro, polls point to a three-bloc scenario: although 13 candidates are running, Iván Cepeda leads voting intention with 38%, followed by Abelardo De la Espriella with 30% and Paloma Valencia with 18%.
Cepeda, the candidate of the Pacto Histórico, proposes continuing the social reforms promoted by the current government and advancing peace negotiations. On the opposition side, De la Espriella, representing Defensores de la Patria, combines a security-focused agenda, cuts in public spending, and an anti-establishment discourse inspired by figures such as Donald Trump, Nayib Bukele, and Javier Milei.
Meanwhile, Valencia, from the Centro Democrático, seeks to consolidate the center-right vote with a liberal and technocratic economic proposal backed by business sectors and traditional parties.
None of the candidates is expected to reach 50% of the vote, making a second round on June 21 the most likely outcome. Projections show tight margins: Cepeda maintains a narrow lead over Valencia and is in a statistical tie with De la Espriella.
The Colombian Congress
With Congress already constituted following the March legislative elections—where the Pacto Histórico consolidated itself as the largest minority bloc in parliament—the next president will have to govern in a context of legislative fragmentation. In those elections, the ruling force won 25 Senate seats and 42 seats in the Chamber of Representatives, followed by the Centro Democrático with 17 seats in the Senate and 28 in the Chamber of Representatives, while Defensores de la Patria secured 3 seats in the upper house.
In this context, governability will depend on the executive’s ability to build agreements with traditional parties such as the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, and the Green Alliance. Thus, the electoral scenario points to a future government conditioned by the need to build legislative coalitions and inter-party agreements in order to ensure governability.