Elections in Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro heads into the runoff with a narrow lead over Lula
On Sunday, October 25, Brazil will hold a runoff to decide who will take office as president on January 5, 2027. The race pits President Lula da Silva (PT), who is seeking a fourth term, against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running and is serving a sentence for attempting a coup d’état. Flávio enters the runoff as the frontrunner after winning the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of the vote, compared with 45.16% for Lula, a result that exceeded what the polls had anticipated.
According to the average of recent polls, Flávio Bolsonaro has 48.7% of voting intentions, 2.2 points ahead of Lula (46.5%), with 5.1% blank votes and undecided voters. However, the president has been narrowing the gap, which remains within the margin of error, so the outcome is still open. Lula also faces an unfavorable precedent: since Brazil’s return to democracy, no candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win the runoff.
A campaign of alliances and mobilization
Since the first round, both candidates have stepped up their mobilization on the ground and on social media. On October 11, Lula took part in the Marcha pela Democracia (March for Democracy), organized by social movements. On October 18, Bolsonaro supporters held a rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, and that same day the candidates faced off in a televised debate marked by mutual accusations of corruption.
Flávio consolidated support on the right and center-right. He secured the endorsement of former candidates Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Augusto Cury (Avante), of parties such as Republicanos, Podemos and the União Brasil–PP federation, and of 12 governors-elect. Renan Santos (Missão), by contrast, remained neutral and left his voters free to choose. At the same time, the PL candidate softened his tone and adopted a more “presidential” message, calling for unity among Brazilians and proposing the creation of a Ministry of Prosperity and cuts to public spending.
Lula, for his part, relied on government measures to reach voters beyond the PT’s traditional base. On October 16, he enacted the constitutional amendment that gradually reduces the workweek from 44 to 40 hours and ends the “6×1” schedule (six workdays for one day off). The reform passed Congress with broad support, including Flávio’s vote. The government also raised the Bolsa Família cash-transfer benefit from R$600 to R$691, announced free public transportation on weekends and holidays, and introduced a constitutional amendment on public security.
A Congress with the PL as the largest party
Congress was already decided on October 4, in a historic election for the PL, which will be the largest party in both chambers. The party won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 28 of the 81 seats in the Senate. The PT and its allies won 88 seats in the Chamber, and the PT won 9 in the Senate. No party will have a majority of its own (257 seats in the Chamber and 41 in the Senate), so the Centrão, the loose bloc of centrist parties, will once again hold the key to governability.
A potential Flávio government would have a friendlier Congress. According to some estimates, an alliance with the Centrão and other center-right forces could exceed 280 seats in the Chamber and approach 50 votes in the Senate, although it would still need additional agreements to pass constitutional reforms. Lula, on the other hand, would face a more hostile Congress, especially in the Senate, making it harder for him to pass constitutional reforms, uphold his vetoes and secure approval of his nominations to the Supreme Federal Court. Newly elected legislators will take office on February 1, 2027.
Keys to the election
In such a tight race, three factors will be decisive: where the votes of the eliminated candidates go, which way undecided voters break, and whether those who abstained in the first round turn out to vote. Polls show that Caiado’s voters lean toward Flávio, while those of Cury and Renan Santos appear more divided. Added to this is an unfavorable regional context for Lula, marked by alternation in power (only four incumbent parties have held on to power in the past decade) and the rise of the right in Latin America.