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General elections in Uruguay: Frente Amplio leads but may not be able to avoid a runoff election

On October 27, Uruguay will go to the polls to elect its next president for the 2025-2030 term. In addition, the entire Congress will be renewed: 99 seats in the House of Representatives and 30 in the Senate. With Luis Lacalle Pou out of the race, as immediate re-election is not allowed, this election features 11 candidates. However, according to polls, only 3 have a real chance. If none of the candidates surpasses 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff on November 24. This is currently the most likely scenario. Whoever is elected to lead the Executive Branch will take office on March 1, 2025.

The 5 key highlights for the upcoming Sunday

1. Yamandú Orsi from the Frente Amplio is the favorite to win the election. The candidate holds an average voting intention of 43%, according to various polls. Twenty points behind is Álvaro Delgado from the ruling Partido Nacional, followed by Andrés Ojeda from the Partido Colorado, who is aiming to challenge Delgado for second place.

2. If none of the candidates secures more than 50% of the votes, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on November 24. This is the most likely outcome for Sunday. The winner will assume office as president on March 1, 2025.

3. Immediate re-election is not allowed, so despite finishing his term with an approval rating close to 50%, current president Luis Lacalle Pou is ineligible.

4. In this election, the parties forming the ruling Coalición Multicolor are running separately. However, their support could realign if a runoff occurs.

5. On Sunday, the composition of the new Congress will also be defined. Both chambers will be entirely renewed, with 99 seats in the House of Representatives and 30 in the Senate. The Frente Amplio is aiming to secure a majority in both chambers. The new legislators will take office on February 15, 2025.

Frente Amplio leads the polls

The leftist candidate Yamandú Orsi is leading the polls with an average voting intention of 43%, surpassing the second candidate by 20 points. To win in the first round, he would need more than 50% of the votes. However, even the most optimistic polls have placed him at 47%, making a second round the most likely scenario.

In an effort to broaden his electoral base, Álvaro Delgado from the ruling Partido Nacional chose Valeria Ripoll, a former member of the Partido Comunista, as his running mate. However, over the last two months, Delgado has seen a drop in support (currently at 22.3%), placing him 6 points below the result he obtained in the first round of the 2019 elections.

One potential surprise in this election is Andrés Ojeda from the Partido Colorado, who has been rising in the polls and is looking to challenge Delgado for second place and secure a spot in the potential runoff. Although also center-right, Ojeda has focused on a campaign aimed at citizens “who politics doesn’t usually reach,” with a strong presence on social media. His success will depend on winning over undecided voters and those who declared they would vote blank.

Congress Projection: In search of a majority

According to polling averages, Frente Amplio is projected to secure a majority of 52 representatives, gaining ten additional seats compared to its current standing. If it wins the presidency, this would allow it to advance its agenda independently, without the need to form alliances with other political forces.

Despite displaying internal cohesion, Frente Amplio will still need to reach internal agreements, as it comprises eight different parties and political movements with parliamentary representation.

What if Frente Amplio wins the presidency but falls short of a majority in the House of Representatives? In this scenario, the focus will shift to the party’s ability to negotiate with segments of the potential opposition front. The current ruling coalition operates under the Coalición Multicolor, which has provided a majority but
has struggled with internal consensus-building. If similar challenges arise, Frente Amplio might be able to attract additional support.

The reduced influence of Cabildo Abierto (CA), a conservative right-wing party within the ruling coalition, could make it easier to find consensus between Partido Nacional and Partido Colorado. Moreover, smaller parties entering Parliament could play a decisive role if Frente Amplio fails to secure an outright majority.