El SalvadorBukele leads electoral race and would be reelected president in Sunday’s election
This February 4, Salvadorans will head to the polls to elect the President for the 2024-2029 term. Although 6 candidates are running, opinion polls predict that the incumbent President, Nayib Bukele (Nuevas Ideas), will be reelected by a wide margin.
Although the Constitution does not contemplate this possibility, the Judiciary branch allowed his candidacy. The Legislative Assembly will also be renewed for the next three years, where 60 seats are up for grabs. The ruling party is seeking to increase its current absolute majority, which would allow Bukele to deepen his government’s agenda.
These elections will take place under a regime of exception, a constitutional instrument that suspends a number of rights and constitutional guarantees in order to combat organized crime. Despite allegations of human rights violations, it is one of the most popular measures of the Bukele government.
Bukele enjoys a wide lead
According to available polls, it is expected that President Nayib Bukele will win in the first round. In order to achieve this, the president will have to receive more than 50% of the valid votes casted. According to pollsters, Bukele has a voting intention of around 77%, well above all his opposition rivals, none of which has more than 5% of electoral preference.
Legislative Elections
The other key issue of the election is whether Nuevas Ideas will be able to increase its majority in the Assembly, where it currently holds 64 of the 84 seats, counting its allies (GANA, PCN and PDC).
Now 60 seats are at stake, after an electoral reform promoted by the Executive Branch reduced its composition and established a new method of distribution of seats, which will be proportional by constituencies.
According to pollsters’ forecasts, Nuevas Ideas will increase its majority, reaching the qualified majority without the need of its allies, where it is estimated that it will obtain 52 of the 60 seats.
