Elections in Brazil: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro head toward an open runoff
On October 4, Brazil will hold general elections to choose its president and vice president, governors, senators and federal deputies. Although 13 candidates are running, the race is polarized between President Lula da Silva (PT), who is seeking a fourth term, and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running and is serving a sentence for attempting a coup d’état. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on October 25, a scenario that all polls take for granted.
According to the average of recent polls, Lula leads voting intentions with 45.3%, three points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, who stands at 42.3%. However, the president’s candidacy appears to have reached a ceiling, while Bolsonaro’s has grown over the past month. The left is concentrated behind a single competitive candidate, while the right arrives fragmented: at least five candidates are competing for the anti-PT vote, including Renan Santos (Missão), Augusto Cury (Avante), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Romeu Zema (Novo). This dispersion costs Flávio votes in the first round, but it does not divide the right ahead of the runoff, where those votes could shift to him.
Two opposing projects
The two candidates’ proposals offer opposing models for the country. On the economy, Lula proposes maintaining the fiscal framework while combining it with social investment, tax justice and real increases in the minimum wage. Flávio, inspired by Javier Milei’s “chainsaw,” promises a fiscal “Tesouraço”: cutting spending, eliminating at least 10 ministries and lowering taxes on fuel and energy.
There are also sharp differences on security, one of voters’ main concerns. Lula proposes fighting organized crime by cutting off its finances, controlling arms trafficking and creating a Ministry of Public Security. Bolsonaro, by contrast, proposes a Nayib Bukele-style “iron fist” policy: designating the PCC and CV factions as narco-terrorist organizations, lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 and building maximum-security prisons. On foreign policy, Lula defends multilateralism, MERCOSUR and the BRICS, and has made sovereignty the centerpiece of his campaign in response to Donald Trump’s tariffs and interference. Flávio seeks to rebuild a priority relationship with the United States, Argentina and Israel and to bring Brazil into the “Shield of the Americas.”
Neither candidate has escaped corruption allegations: the “Master case” has reached both Flávio, who is under investigation by the Supreme Federal Court over the financing of a biopic about his father, and Lula’s inner circle.
A Congress where no party governs alone
In addition to the presidency, the entire Chamber of Deputies (513 seats) and 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats will be up for election. Projections indicate that the PL would grow in the Senate and remain relatively stable in the Chamber of Deputies, but would in no case reach a majority in either chamber (257 seats in the Chamber and 41 in the Senate). The Senate would tend to be more conservative, which would favor a potential Bolsonaro government, though it would still have to negotiate with other forces. In this scenario, the Centrão parties will remain the key for whoever reaches the Planalto Palace. Newly elected legislators will take office on February 1, 2027.
A runoff with an open outcome
In a potential head-to-head contest, the latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows a statistical tie: Lula at 47.7% and Flávio at 47.3%, with 5% blank votes and undecided voters. The transfer of votes from the other right-wing candidates and the choices of undecided voters will be decisive in such a tight race, in which both candidates also have very similar rejection levels. In a regional context marked by alternation in power and right-wing victories in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and Peru, the result will determine whether Latin America’s largest economy remains under a left-wing government or joins the regional shift.