VenezuelaMaduro’s Capture: Institutional Implications and Political Scenarios in Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, a military operation carried out by United States special forces in Caracas resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The action, which included bombings of strategic facilities, triggered a high-impact political rupture both domestically and regionally, reopening the debate on state sovereignty, international law, and the limits of external intervention in Latin America.
An exceptional institutional resolution
Following Maduro’s capture, Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruled that Vice President Delcy Rodríguez would assume the presidency on an interim basis. The decision was grounded in Article 234 of the Constitution, which provides for the “temporary absence” of the president, thereby avoiding the immediate call for elections and ensuring the administrative continuity of the state.
This legal framework allowed for a swift resolution of the power vacuum while simultaneously consolidating a controlled institutional transition, without an immediate redefinition of the political regime.
The United States and the centrality of the geopolitical factor
In parallel, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would temporarily govern Venezuela until advancing toward a “safe and sensible transition.” The official discourse made clear that the United States reserves the capacity to exert political, economic, and military pressure on the new government.
The primary focus of U.S. intervention centers on control over and reactivation of Venezuela’s oil sector, regarded as strategic both for the country’s economic recovery and for regional stability. The explicit threat of a deepening intervention reinforces the weight of the military factor as a central constraint shaping this new phase.
Delcy Rodríguez: continuity without Maduro
Delcy Rodríguez’s assumption of office opens a phase of continuity of chavismo without Maduro’s leadership. With an extensive political career and direct experience in economic and energy-related areas, Rodríguez is positioned as a pragmatic figure within the ruling coalition, capable of engaging both domestic actors and international stakeholders.
However, her room for maneuver is limited by external pressure from the United States and by internal tensions within chavismo, where more hardline factions coexist with others willing to pursue negotiations in order to preserve power.
An Assembly with a pro-government majority and internal tensions
The new National Assembly, overwhelmingly dominated by the ruling party, began its legislative term in a context of partial military control and strong external influence. Although it holds a solid majority, it faces difficulties in forging a unified political stance in response to the current crisis, introducing an additional source of fragility to governance.
Open scenarios and variables to monitor
The scenario unfolding in Venezuela lies far from the extremes of an immediate democratic transition or an accelerated authoritarian deepening. In the short term, the country appears headed toward a phase of tense stability, shaped by political negotiations, geopolitical constraints, and internal power struggles.
Within this framework, three key variables will be critical to monitor: the internal cohesion of chavismo, the effective level of U.S. involvement in Venezuelan politics, and the reaction of the international community to a precedent of direct military intervention in the region.