• Honduras

Elections in Honduras: A Tight Race Among Moncada, Nasralla and Asfura

More than six million citizens are eligible to vote in Honduras’ elections, to be held on Sunday, November 30, which will determine the successor to Xiomara Castro. In addition to choosing a new president, the country will renew all 128 seats in Congress and its representatives to the Central American Parliament (Parlacen). It will be a single-round election, with three candidates entering the final stretch with very similar levels of support.

Polls show a three-way race among Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party), Nasry Asfura (National Party) and Rixi Moncada (LIBRE). All three range between 17% and 26% in voting intention, while the large share of undecided voters—between 20% and 35%—could ultimately shape the outcome. The winner will be the candidate who secures the largest number of votes.

At the same time, the country heads into election day with weakened institutions and high levels of public mistrust. Tensions within the National Electoral Council, irregularities in the primaries, and recent controversies over the role of the Armed Forces have raised concerns among opposition leaders and the public. Several international organizations, including the OAS, the European Union, Human Rights Watch and Transparency International, will deploy observation missions to help strengthen confidence in the process.

On the legislative front, all 128 seats in the unicameral Congress will also be renewed. With no specific polling available, a fragmented outcome similar to the current composition is expected, making it unlikely that any party will secure the 65 votes needed to advance its agenda without negotiations. The next government’s ability to build coalitions and reach agreements will be critical.

Honduras thus approaches the elections with an open political landscape, institutional tensions and a pressing need for consensus to face the challenges ahead: persistent insecurity, political polarization, concerns over transparency and a Congress that will require renewed cooperation.