Preelection: General elections in Mexico
Political AnalisysOn June 2, Mexico will hold its largest elections in history, with nearly 20,000 positions up for grabs. These elections will not only determine the next President but also renew the entire Congress, 9 governorships, and 30 local congresses. With no possibility of a runoff, the candidate with the most votes will become President and will take office on October 1.
Current polls favor Claudia Sheinbaum, who aims to build on the achievements of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) under the “Fourth Transformation” (4T) initiative. Xóchitl Gálvez, leading a coalition that includes the PRI, PAN, and PRD parties, is seen as her main competitor.
At the legislative level, all 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 128 seats in the Senate will be contested. Predictions suggest that Sheinbaum’s polling advantage and the significant territorial influence of Morena could allow the ruling party, along with its allies, to secure an absolute majority (more than half ot the total seats) in both chambers. However, achieving a qualified majority (two-thirds of the total seats), necessary for constitutional reforms, appears unlikely. Consequently, if Sheinbaum wins, the success of her more ambitious legislative agenda will hinge on her ability to negotiate and build alliances with the opposition.